M&A Is Booming, Just Not Below $1 Billion

I noticed something in the BCG numbers this week that most headlines skipped right past.

Global M&. A value ran 11% above its 10-year average in the first eight months of 2026. Good number. Strong number, even. But when you pull the data apart, almost the entire gain sits at the top of the market. Deal volume below $1 billion is still under its longer-term norms.

So the boom is real. It's just narrow.

The $1 Billion Line

Let me break this down. Aggregate deal value rose 15%. Megadeals, the kind that clear $5 billion or more, blew past the record set in 2021. That's the stat everyone's quoting, and it's a real one. Corporate balance sheets are healthy, financing markets reopened, and boards that sat on their hands through 2023 and 2024 finally moved.

But here's what matters: the middle of the market never showed up.

So where did it go?

Deals under $1 billion are the lifeblood of the M&. A machine. They're how mid-market private equity firms put capital to work, how founders get liquidity, how strategic buyers fill product gaps without a boardroom fight. When that segment stays under trend for this long while the top end posts records, that's not a boom. That's a barbell.

Two things explain it. Financing is one. Big deals get syndicated, structured, and sold to institutions. Small deals still lean on regional banks and smaller lenders, and that capital is more expensive and harder to line up than it was in 2021. Price expectations are the other. Sellers who watched public comps rally in 2025 want 2021 multiples. Buyers won't pay them. So the deals just don't happen.

Why You Should Care

If you're an operator, a founder, or anyone with exposure to private companies, this is the number that matters to you. Not the megadeal headline.

The companies stuck below $1 billion are the ones that can't get bought and can't easily IPO. That's a capital trap. Employees holding options, early investors waiting on a return, and founders who planned a 2026 exit all feel it.

And frankly, it's showing up in crypto too. Digital asset companies are mostly sub-$1 billion assets by valuation. When the mid-market freezes, those deals freeze with it. We've watched crypto M&. A stay thin even as the biggest exchanges and custodians keep writing large checks. Same barbell. Same cause.

But I'd push back on the idea that this is a warning sign. It isn't. The top of the market clearing a 2021 record while rates sit higher than they were then tells you something about conviction. Buyers aren't paying up because money is cheap. They're paying up because they see strategic value they can't build themselves.

The numbers tell the story. Capital is available. It's just concentrated.

My Read

Don't treat the 11% headline as proof that dealmaking is healthy across the board. It isn't. It's proof that scale wins right now, and anything without scale is waiting.

So what do you actually do with this? If you're a buyer with a thesis in the sub-$1 billion range, the next 12 months are your window. Sellers are still anchored to old prices, but that anchor breaks when a company misses a plan. Patience pays. If you're a seller, the honest advice is to stop waiting for 2021 to come back.

What I'm watching: whether sub-$1 billion volume starts closing that gap in the back half of 2026. If it doesn't, the boom was never a boom. It was a top-end trade, and the middle of the market got left out of it.