Bernstein Holds $160 HOOD Target While Prediction Markets Add $1.7B by 2028

Bernstein raised its revenue estimates for Robinhood through 2028 and kept its HOOD price target at $160. The figure driving that revision is $1.7 billion, the firm's projection for prediction market revenue. By 2028, that line is expected to be larger than what Robinhood earns from crypto trading.

The specification is as follows. Estimates move up for 2026 and 2028. The $160 target doesn't move at all. That gap is the interesting part. Analysts are telling clients the revenue mix is shifting faster than the valuation model, but they aren't ready to reprice the stock on it yet.

Prediction markets are contract markets. Binary outcomes, yes or no, settled against a defined source. Robinhood routes orders through Kalshi's regulated exchange instead of building the book itself. So the company collects distribution economics without carrying the full regulatory weight of a derivatives venue. That's a defensible spot to hold while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission keeps writing event contract rules in real time.

Crypto trading revenue is cyclical and fee-compressed. Prediction markets are event-driven. Every election, every rate decision, every earnings surprise is a fresh listing with fresh volume behind it. That's a structurally different revenue shape, and it's why the 2028 crossover projection matters more than the $1.7 billion headline.

There's a harder question for crypto holders buried in this. If the fastest-growing revenue line at a retail brokerage is event contracts settled in dollars, not tokens, then the crypto rail is doing the boring work. Compliance, custody, settlement plumbing. That's a real business. It just isn't the one that trades at a premium multiple.

Who loses? Offshore prediction books. And any exchange that treated event contracts as a novelty while assuming trading fees would hold where they were.

Watch the regulatory calendar. If the CFTC formalizes event contract rules, Robinhood's distribution edge gets easier to defend and the $160 target starts to look stale.