XRP Battles Bearish Trends: Can ETF Inflows Outweigh Selling Pressure?

XRP is navigating turbulent waters, as its price has plummeted to $1.11, marking a new low in 2026. Despite this downturn, May saw the strongest ETF inflows of the year, capturing $131.94 million and outpacing both Bitcoin and Ethereum products. The question is whether these inflows can counterbalance the significant selling pressure the token faces.

ETF Inflows Amidst Bearish Signals

May's ETF inflows into XRP reached an impressive $131.94 million, suggesting a strong demand from regulated markets. This might seem counterintuitive given that the token's market cap shrank by $8 billion over just three sessions. The price struggles are evident, with XRP's 90-day realized profit-to-loss ratio plummeting to 0.38, indicating that holders are realizing only 38 cents in profit for every dollar lost. At the height of speculative frenzy in 2025, this ratio was a strikingly optimistic 50.

the average realized price for XRP currently stands at $1.48, putting most holders underwater. In simpler terms, the average investor would need the price to climb back to this level just to break even. Organic transaction demand on the XRP Ledger has also collapsed, with total fees paid dropping a staggering 91.5% from February 2025 to June 9.

Whale Activity: A Double-Edged Sword?

Whales have a significant influence on XRP markets, with exchange-flow analyses showing whale dominance at over 90% across Binance and other centralized exchanges. While this could imply immense selling pressure, it could also indicate possible accumulation. Should whales decide to hold rather than sell, this could signal confidence and limit selling supply, potentially supporting prices. Or could this inflow reflect a mere repositioning of assets without any real impact on XRP's market dynamics?

Santiment data reveals that wallets holding over 10 million XRP reached 45.83 billion XRP, the highest concentration since May 2018. Similarly, wallets with at least 10,000 XRP have hit an all-time high, indicating a potential build-up that could eventually underpin a price recovery. Yet, despite this accumulation, there's no solid price floor established, raising questions about whether these large holders can stem the tide in a bearish market.

The ETF and Institutional Dimension

With seven U.S. spot XRP ETFs now operational, holding around 923.7 million XRP, the market clearly shows an appetite for regulated investment vehicles. Cumulative inflows since late 2025 have approached $1.45 billion. However, price action shows that this demand has been absorbed largely without spurring a rally. Institutional moves, like Goldman Sachs liquidating its $154 million XRP ETF position, underline the volatility and dual nature of institutional investments in crypto.

Standard Chartered's projection of $4 billion to $8 billion in potential ETF inflows for 2026, hinging on the passage of the CLARITY Act, could be a major shift if realized. Yet, with only a 47% likelihood of the act passing, these projections are far from guaranteed.

Who Wins, Who Loses?

For XRP to bounce back, ETF inflows need to not just continue but accelerate as the CLARITY Act progresses. If large holders who've been accumulating can maintain their positions and dampen the loss-realization trend, there's hope for stabilization above the $1.00 mark. But if capitulation metrics persist and whale selling intensifies, XRP might test new lows, possibly testing $0.90, where long-term holders' resolve will be put to the test.

The market remains precarious. ETF demand shows institutional interest, yet the current selling pressure reveals a market in search of equilibrium. Will the whales' next move tip the scales? Or will ETF inflows provide the cushion needed to stabilize XRP?