Jamie Dimon Says the Dollar Stays King Only if Washington Signs Trade Deals

What actually keeps the dollar on top? Not the printing press. Not the carrier groups. Jamie Dimon thinks it's trade deals.

The JPMorgan Chase CEO made that argument twice this week. Once in a Bloomberg Tech interview with David Westin. Once in a Wall Street Journal op-ed published Monday. His thesis is simple and, frankly, uncomfortable for anyone who assumes reserve status is permanent. The dollar stays dominant only if the US economy stays dominant. Trade deals with allies are how you keep it that way.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Start with the reserve data. The dollar's share of allocated global reserves sits near 58%, according to the IMF's COFER dataset. That's down from roughly 72% in 2000. The euro holds about 20%. The yuan holds around 2%.

Now the plumbing. The dollar was on one side of 88% of all foreign exchange transactions in the BIS's last triennial survey. And it shows up in roughly half of global trade finance. Those numbers describe network effects, not sentiment.

Then there's the balance sheet doing the arguing. JPMorgan earned $58.5 billion in 2024. Its balance sheet runs past $4 trillion. When Dimon talks about dollar infrastructure, he's talking about something his own firm is deeply exposed to.

Why Trade Deals Are the Real Backstop

Here's what matters: invoicing. Roughly 96% of trade invoicing in the Americas is done in dollars, according to BIS research. In Asia-Pacific it's about 74%. Companies invoice in the currency they borrow in. That habit is what makes the dollar sticky.

Trade agreements reinforce the habit. They standardize payment terms, financing structures, and settlement rails across borders. Kill the deals and you don't kill the dollar overnight. You just make it easier for partners to invoice elsewhere.

Sterling is the cautionary tale. The pound's reserve share fell alongside Britain's share of global trade, and it kept falling for decades after. Currency status follows economic gravity. It doesn't lead it.

What the Street Is Missing

Foreign investors hold roughly $8.5 trillion in US Treasuries. Traders are watching those flows the way they watch oil inventories. If reserve managers trim exposure, the marginal buyer shifts and yields move.

So ask the obvious question. Does anyone seriously think the yuan can absorb $8.5 trillion of that demand in the next decade? No. China's capital account isn't open enough, and the offshore pool is a fraction of what's needed. That's the bull case for the dollar, and it's stronger than most people admit.

But Dimon's point cuts the other way too. If Washington stops signing deals, the erosion isn't dramatic. It's quiet. A basis point here, a shift in a settlement currency there. Ray Dalio has been warning about debt dynamics for years. Barry Eichengreen made the structural case in Exorbitant Privilege. Notably, both arguments land in the same place.

Privilege has to be maintained.

What to Watch

The USMCA joint review lands in July 2026. That's the nearest hard catalyst on the trade calendar. Watch whether the administration locks in market access terms early or lets them drift into election-season noise.

Then watch the quarterly IMF COFER print. A move below 57% would get attention. The monthly TIC data matters too, specifically the foreign official holdings line.

And keep an eye on gold. Central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes a year for three straight years. That's not panic. It's diversification. It's also a signal that reserve managers want optionality, and they're willing to pay for it.

My take is simple. Dimon is right that reserve status is downstream of competitiveness. But he's polite about the constraint that actually binds. Fiscal policy. No trade deal saves the dollar if the deficit keeps crowding out the argument for holding it.