Is Bitcoin Near Its Bear Market Bottom? Two Key Indicators Hint at the Truth

Bitcoin's wild ride continues, hanging around $62,600, a stark 50% drop from its October 2025 high of $126,080. But here's the kicker: two intriguing on-chain metrics are pointing towards a potential bear market bottom. The question is, are these signals reliable?

Data Reveals Signs of a Bottoming Market

The Puell Multiple and long-term holder supply are the current stars of the Bitcoin analysis show. The Puell Multiple, which evaluates miner revenue against a yearly average, is flirting with its historical bottom zone, lingering slightly above 0.5. Historically, this threshold has hinted at miner capitulation and the end of Bitcoin's downturns.

Glassnode's data reflects that on five separate occasions in the past years, namely 2012, 2015, late 2018, mid-2020, and late 2022, the Puell Multiple dipped into the low zone, coinciding with Bitcoin's macro lows. Today, as it hovers just above that critical mark, it's worth asking if history's about to repeat itself.

Meanwhile, long-term holder supply, defined as coins unmoved for over 155 days, has hit a record 16.75 million BTC. That's nearly 84% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, indicating persistent accumulation even as prices falter. Under neutral conditions, such consistent behavior by long-term holders usually signals strong hands stepping in to support the price.

The Skeptics' View

But is it all sunshine and rainbows? Not quite. The market's intricate dance means there are always counterpoints to consider. First, while the Puell Multiple is near historical lows, it hasn't decisively breached them yet. If it doesn't dip below 0.5 soon, we might be in for a longer wait before seeing substantial upward momentum.

And while long-term holders are accumulating, there's an underlying question: can they absorb the selling pressure if miners, squeezed by diminishing margins, decide to offload their holdings?

Professional traders are pricing in a potential drop to $47,000, roughly 25% lower than current levels. Here, the skew tells a different story, hinting at underlying bearish sentiments that could derail the expected bottoming-out process.

Final Word: Betting on History or Caution?

So where does this leave us? On the one hand, the core signals from on-chain metrics are whispering that a bottom might be near. Yet, relying solely on historical patterns, especially in an asset as unpredictable as Bitcoin, can be risky business. Sure, the signals are compelling, but betting on them demands a risk appetite that acknowledges potential downturns before the uptrend materializes.

In essence, while the Puell Multiple and long-term holder supply offer compelling narratives, the indispensable lessons from prior cycles shouldn't be ignored. More than ever, the market's maturity and reduced volatility mean that even seasoned crypto enthusiasts should tread cautiously. Here, patience might not just be a virtue, but an effective strategy, as strong hands continue their quiet accumulation.