Coinbase Misses Revenue by $33 Million but Grabs a Record 10.7% of Trading Volume
Coinbase's third-quarter revenue came in at $1.20 billion, short of consensus, as monthly transacting users slid to 7.4 million. Yet its share of global crypto volume hit 10.7%, the fourth straight quarter of gains. The user number is cyclical. The market share number isn't.
Coinbase posted $1.20 billion in third-quarter revenue on October 30, missing the $1.233 billion analysts had modeled. The gap is real. So is the cause: monthly transacting users fell to 7.4 million, down from 9.3 million a year earlier.
But look at the other side of that ledger. Coinbase's slice of global crypto trading volume climbed to 10.7%, the fourth consecutive quarter of gains. Users aren't abandoning the platform. They're abandoning the market. That distinction matters far more than a $33 million revenue shortfall.
Subscription and services revenue reached $570 million, and the prediction markets business crossed $200 million in annualized revenue. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $332.9 million, extending a streak of 15 straight profitable quarters on that measure. Coinbase One also set a subscriber record. The recurring revenue base is doing the work that trading fees used to do.
The company disclosed buying 643 Bitcoin for its own balance sheet during the quarter. That puts Coinbase in the same conversation as the corporate treasury buyers it custodies for, and it's a far more interesting signal than the revenue line.
Then there's Brian Armstrong. Filings show he adopted a Rule 10b5-1 plan in August to sell up to 8.17 million Class A shares, with sales running from November 16 through October of 2027, subject to price conditions. Co-founder Fred Ehrsam and President Emilie Choi have similar arrangements. Roughly 13.6 million shares in total. The structure employs pre-scheduled tranches, which means it's not a reaction to this print. VanEck's Matthew Sigel tracked about $545.7 million of Armstrong sales over nine months starting in April 2025, and Armstrong has consistently framed those as risk management.
COIN still fell about 15% on the day. The tape had other things on its mind. Binance disclosed a breach on October 29 that it estimates at $6.3 billion, the largest crypto theft on record, with roughly $3 billion frozen so far. Bitcoin dropped about 4.5% to below $77,000. Strategy fell nearly 10%. Strive lost more than 12% at points. Coinbase shares are down over 55% this year.
So here's the bet: Coinbase is shedding users and gaining share at the same time, and only one of those numbers is temporary. Watch the 10.7%.