Black Monday Called It Quits Before Breakfast

Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 0.9% early Monday morning. On a normal week that's a line you skip. This week it's a rebuttal.

Because over the weekend, the internet decided Monday would be a crash. Not a pullback. A Black Monday. And just like that, futures said no.

What Actually Went Down

Friday was brutal. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.1%. The S&. P 500 lost 1.1%. Both logged their worst week since June, and chips did most of the damage.

Semis got hit hardest. That's the part of the tape with the most use to the AI trade, so it's also the part that panics first when sentiment flips. When chips crack, the whole index feels it. That's just math.

By Friday's close, the doomsday crowd had its story ready. Screenshots of 1987, charts with arrows going down, the usual. Then Sunday night rolled around and futures opened green.

Up 0.9% isn't a moon shot. But it's enough to break the narrative before the cash market even opens.

Was Anyone Actually Selling?

Here's the thing about Black Monday calls. They're loud, they're cheap, and they're almost always wrong on the exact day people say them.

Did the warnings miss the mark? Mostly, yeah. Friday was a repricing, not a collapse. A 2.1% Nasdaq day happens. It happened plenty in 2025 without anyone calling for a market funeral.

The wild part is how fast the fear rotated. One bad week in chips and suddenly the whole thing was 1987 again. That's not analysis. That's engagement bait dressed up as macro.

Look at the setup. AI capex is still massive, earnings are still coming in, and there's a wall of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for a discount. Friday handed them one. So they bought it.

This changes things for the bears. If a 2.1% Nasdaq drop gets bought within 48 hours, the pullback trade loses its teeth. Shorts that piled in Friday are already underwater.

Does that mean the selloff is over? No. Chips can absolutely crack again. Valuations in AI names are still stretched and one green futures print doesn't fix that. But the folks calling for a crash Monday morning were trading vibes, not data.

My take: the selloff was healthy. A market that only goes up is a market that breaks harder later. Friday shook out the weak hands. Monday's futures suggest stronger ones were waiting.

What to Watch

The cash open is the real test. Futures can fade. A 0.9% premarket gain can turn into a flat close by 3pm ET if the chip complex rolls over again.

Watch semis first. If they lead the bounce, the dip buyers are serious. If they lag, Monday's rally is a head fake and the Black Monday crowd gets another shot on Tuesday.

Also watch the VIX. A spike that doesn't unwind means institutions are still hedging. A fast drop means the fear was retail hype, not positioning.

Here's the takeaway. The market's verdict on Black Monday was a shrug and a bid. That's not a crash. That's a buying opportunity with better branding.

Traders are watching closely. And so should you.