A $623.9M Supply Bomb Meets a Fibonacci Wall: Your Nov. 9-15 Watchlist
More than $623.9 million in token unlocks hits the tape in the second week of November 2026, led by Allora, Connex, and Aztec. At the same time, INJ, PEARL, and PEPE are all pressing key Fibonacci resistance. Two forces, one week, and the price action won't be polite about it.
More than $623.9 million in fresh token supply lands on the market between Nov. 9 and Nov. 15, 2026. And three altcoins are grinding into Fibonacci resistance at the exact same moment. That's not a coincidence worth ignoring.
Anon, let me explain.
Nov. 9 to Nov. 15: The Schedule
Allora (ALLO) leads the unlock list. The project releases a chunk of previously locked supply into circulation during the week, and it's the largest single distribution on the calendar by dollar value.
Connex (CONX) follows. Same story, different ticker. Locked tokens become liquid, and newly liquid tokens have a habit of finding a seller.
Aztec (AZTEC) closes out the sequence. All three combine for that $623.9 million headline number, and all three land inside a six-day window.
Here's the thing about unlocks. They're not a surprise. Everyone knows the date months in advance. But knowing a wave is coming doesn't stop you from getting wet.
Meanwhile, Injective (INJ) and Pearl (PEARL) ripped 14.6% and 14.2% over the past seven days, per CoinGecko. PEPE only managed 3.8% on the week, but it's the one pressing against a 10-month ceiling. All three sit within 8% of a key Fibonacci resistance level.
That's the setup. One side of the market is adding supply. The other side is testing a wall.
What Actually Breaks
Unlocks don't kill a chart. Sellers do. And the sellers here are the ones who got their bags at seed or private prices, watching a 3x to 10x sit there unlocked for the first time.
Some of them hold. Most of them don't. That's the honest math, and it's why unlock weeks tend to front-run themselves. Price often bleeds two or three days before the tokens even move.
The Fibonacci setup is the more interesting half of the story. INJ and PEARL just posted double-digit weekly gains. Those are momentum moves, and momentum moves into resistance either break clean or reverse hard. There's not much middle ground.
PEPE is the wildcard. A 10-month ceiling is a real level. Retail treats it like a meme. Whales treat it like a decision point. If PEPE clears that band, the entire memecoin complex gets a bid. If it rejects, the 3.8% weekly gain evaporates fast.
The chain doesn't lie. Watch the exchange inflows on ALLO, CONX, and AZTEC before the unlock dates. Tokens moving to CEX wallets ahead of schedule is the loudest signal you'll get.
The Next 10 Days
Three things to track.
First, the ALLO unlock. If the market absorbs $200 million-plus of new supply without a break in structure, that's a genuinely bullish read on demand for the whole unlock calendar into December.
Second, INJ and PEARL. A weekly close above their Fibonacci resistance zones confirms the trend. A wick and a rejection means the 14% rallies were a liquidity grab, not a trend change.
Third, PEPE's 10-month ceiling. That's the binary. Real talk: if PEPE breaks out while three majors are diluting, that tells you where the marginal buyer actually is.
My take? Unlock weeks are where weak hands get flushed, not where trends die. I've been saying this for weeks. The $623.9 million number sounds scary until you check whether it's 40% of float or 4%.
Here's what I'm doing. Watching exchange netflows daily from Nov. 9. If supply hits the books and price holds flat, the year-end setup gets a lot more interesting. If price breaks on day one, wait. The second dip after an unlock is usually the better entry.
This is bigger than people realize. Not because of the dollar figure. Because of the timing.
