Sberbank Thinks Russia's Crypto Market Is Worth $46.4B in Year One
Russia's largest bank predicts $46.4 billion in crypto trading volume in its first year, with $87 billion by 2029. Sberbank is rolling out wallets, custody, and even crypto-backed loans. But the government still bans crypto payments and punishes unregistered exchanges harshly.
Sberbank is going big on crypto. That's strange to type about Russia's largest bank, but here we're. The bank says it expects 4 trillion rubles, about $46.4 billion, in trading volume during its first year running crypto services. By 2029, the forecast jumps to 7.5 trillion rubles, roughly $87 billion. Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov called that estimate conservative.
The rollout starts soon. Sberbank plans to launch a Bitcoin and crypto wallet plus digital asset custody by December. The Bank of Russia published draft rules for crypto trading in July, and the State Duma is working on the broader digital asset framework. And it's not just trading. Popov also said Sberbank will accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as collateral for loans.
Here's the catch. Using crypto as payment is still banned in Russia. That's been true since 2022. So you'll be able to trade, hold, and maybe borrow against your coins, but you can't use them to buy a sandwich. Think of it this way: Russia is building a toll road for digital assets, and every entrance is guarded.
The legal framework is tight. Putin signed a law this month that lets only registered entities operate exchanges. Retail investors also face limits on how much crypto they can use. The state wants to know who's holding what, and it wants taxes paid.
The change comes at a time when Russian companies have been quietly using Bitcoin for foreign trade. That's what happens when the U.S. and Europe cut you off from SWIFT. The sanctions squeeze created real demand. Now the state is trying to capture that demand and control it.
But the state's grip is harsh. Unregistered crypto exchanges are being shut down. In one extreme case, a nuclear engineer in Sarov got 18 years for sending about $13 from his crypto wallet to groups the government calls terrorist organizations. In simple terms, the rules aren't optional.
Is this good news for crypto? Partly. A $46 billion first-year forecast is a lot of liquidity. A state-backed bank accepting Bitcoin as loan collateral is a strong signal. But this version of crypto is state-controlled. That's the opposite of the borderless, permissionless idea Bitcoin was built on.
For everyday users, nothing changes overnight. The wallet isn't live yet, and the regulations are still being written. Watch December. If Sberbank actually launches on schedule, Russia becomes a serious crypto market with serious limits.