Bitcoin's Roller Coaster Ride: Is the Bottom Finally In?

So, is Bitcoin finally nearing its bottom after a 14% tumble that left markets reeling? The timing couldn't be more critical, as investors try to catch their breath. According to Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, the answer might be yes. He believes the crypto bear market is almost over, and here's why it matters.

The Evidence: Institutional Outflows and Market Reactions

The market shed 14% in a week, dragging Bitcoin prices to levels unseen since February. A combination of factors like institutional outflows, use liquidations, geopolitical stress, and a surprising sale by Strategy contributed to this movement. Bitcoin was trading around $63,739, a significant drop from its 24-hour high of $67,416.50. It's clear the market's been on edge.

But Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, sees the glass half full. He suggests the bear market might be in its final stages. "I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k, we'll say this was the buying zone we all wanted," he wrote to clients.

Also, Strategy's unexpected Bitcoin sale has people talking. They sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, earning $2.5 million at an average of $77,135 per coin. This move shocked the market, as it marked the first time the firm reduced its Bitcoin holdings in years, breaking from co-founder Michael Saylor’s 'never sell' mantra.

Counterpoint: Market Uncertainty and Risks

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. What if Kendrick's optimism doesn't pan out? The recent market reactions offer little reason for immediate celebration. Bitcoin fell below $72,000 following Strategy's SEC filing. Their stock also dropped nearly 6%, and STRC shares traded around $94.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a 13-day streak of net outflows, the longest since their launch in 2024. Investors withdrew around $3.45 billion, with the final week of May seeing the third-largest weekly withdrawal on record at $1.42 billion. It's the worst month for spot ETF outflows in 2026, reaching $2.30 billion.

Amid such turbulence, could the bulls be missing something? Kendrick's prediction leans heavily on historical patterns. Yet, markets can be stubbornly unpredictable, especially in the crypto world.

Your Verdict: An Opportunity or a Mirage?

Here's the thing. If Kendrick's analysis turns out to be right, then the current slump might indeed be a buying opportunity. He points out three pillars supporting his thesis. First, Strategy's behavior in 2022 could repeat itself. Back then, after selling Bitcoin, Strategy rebounded by buying more in just two days. Could history repeat itself? Kendrick thinks it's possible, with potential buybacks up to 100 times the 32 BTC sold.

Second, despite ETF outflows, the cumulative net inflow since inception remains strong, standing at $54.2 billion. The total BTC held by U.S.-listed funds is at approximately 674,000 BTC, barely changed from its peak. According to Kendrick, ETF holdings seem more structurally stable than feared.

And third, the risk of forced selling has diminished. Bitcoin futures liquidations were worth $1.5 billion, a figure consistent with past downturns. With BTC underperforming equities, the risk seems lower.

So, is this the bottom?, but Kendrick remains bullish with a year-end target of $100,000 for Bitcoin. The capital isn't leaving crypto, it's just reconsidering where to stay. Asia moves first, and the West might soon catch up.