Why Trump's 2026 Could Put Crypto on a Bull or Bear Path

Here's the thing: 2026 may be the year that defines the trajectory of both the global economy and the cryptocurrency market under the Trump administration. While initial enthusiasm for Trump's pro-business stance had markets soaring, geopolitical tensions could soon put a damper on that bullish sentiment.

The Initial Euphoria

Back in November 2024, when Donald Trump clinched a second term, investors across financial and cryptocurrency markets celebrated. The promise of lower taxes and deregulation seemed to breathe new life into capitalism's engine. Notably, the S&. P 500 surged by 17.9% in 2025, a figure that far exceeds its historical average of about 10%. That's not just a bump. it's a leap.

In parallel, the ripple effects were felt by crypto assets. Many saw this as a green light for risk-taking, with Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking resistance levels and pushing new all-time highs. The backdrop of AI-led growth only added fuel to the fire, creating an environment seemingly tailor-made for speculative assets to thrive.

But Here's the Catch

Yet, even as the Trump economy basked in its honeymoon phase, the clouds gathering on the horizon are hard to ignore. As of February 2026, the U.S. and Israel have initiated military actions against Iran, a key player responsible for 4% of the world's oil production. This conflict has caught the attention of other major Middle Eastern oil producers, who now find themselves embroiled in either direct or indirect clashes.

All of this culminates in a logistical nightmare at the Strait of Hormuz, a turning point point for oil transportation. So, what's the direct consequence? Oil prices could skyrocket, pressuring corporate profit margins and consumer wallets alike. With elevated energy costs, will companies still have the appetite to invest in growth? And how will strained balance sheets impact the liquidity conditions for crypto?

A Bullish Narrative?

Of course, there's another side to consider. Some might argue that geopolitical instability, while a risk, could also drive haven demand. In this scenario, Bitcoin, long dubbed 'digital gold,' could see an inflow of capital as investors seek refuge from fiat volatility. After all, crypto doesn't exist in a vacuum. It's part of a vast mosaic of global financial instruments.

a potential repricing of risk could force investors to reassess the traditional 60/40 portfolio and consider alternative assets. If bonds and equities falter, crypto might just become a more appealing prospect.

Our Take

In this cross-asset story, where traditional markets and crypto are interwoven, 2026 presents both opportunities and threats. While there's undeniable pressure from geopolitical risks and potential economic stagnation, the narrative of Bitcoin as a haven asset could gain traction. But let's zoom out further. The macro backdrop suggests that volatility will remain a constant, and adaptability will be key.

Ultimately, whether crypto investors see 2026 as a bull or bear moment will hinge on their ability to interpret these interconnected variables. While the cards are stacked on both sides, our bet leans towards a more volatile year, rich with both peril and promise.