Polymarket Traders Give Trump's Iran Ceasefire Only a 3% Chance

Traders on Polymarket are betting against the likelihood of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran on President Trump's timeline. With over $103 million in trading volume, the platform gives it just a 3% chance of success. That number tells a lot about current market sentiment. The crowd seems to have decided: no deal is coming by the deadline.

Iran has already rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal led by Pakistan, with mediation from Egypt and Turkey. Instead, Tehran proposed a full 10-point plan that even seeks a permanent war end. Trump dismissed this as insufficient and insisted on his Tuesday deadline. Meanwhile, Polymarket shows ceasefire odds slowly climbing to 15% by mid-April and 29% by month-end. They rise to 59% by June and 76% by year's end, but that's little comfort right now.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil passage, looks similarly bleak. A separate Polymarket contract shows just 14% odds for normal shipping levels by April's end. It’s a sharp drop of over 51 percentage points since trading began. The oil market isn’t faring much better. Traders are 77% sure that WTI crude will hit $120 by April. The ongoing conflict is squeezing energy markets and, by extension, the crypto sector. Higher oil prices could mean tighter liquidity, affecting Bitcoin and altcoins.

Here's the thing: prediction markets are sounding alarms. If no ceasefire arrives by Tuesday, we might see even higher oil prices and a turbulent crypto market. Watch this space.